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M94A2455.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2455
DOCN M94A2455
TI A birth cohorts analysis of Brazilian AIDS cases, 1980-93.
DT 9412
AU Struchiner C; Rodrigues L; Castilho E; Stoneburner R; Sereno A; Lauria
L; Loures L; Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):300 (abstract no. PC0127). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370120
AB OBJECTIVES: To describe the dependence of HIV incidence on age, time,
gender, mode of transmission and geographic region. METHODS: Reported
AIDS case series from 1980 to 1992 are disaggregated into composite
birth cohorts and stratified by gender, mode of transmission and
geographic region. The number of new cases of AIDS reported each year is
then plotted against time for each stratum allowing for visual
comparison of the growth curves. In addition, 3D growth curves relating
age, time and reported number of new cases are also plotted with the
same purpose. 2D and 3D statistical smoothing techniques are used to
improve visualization. HIV incidence is estimated for each disaggregated
case series through the use of the backcalculation technique. RESULTS:
(1) a general pattern of declining growth rates in AIDS incidence in
older cohorts born in 1960-69 is seen among homosexual males; (2) the
epidemics in IVDUs appears to have affected or is currently affecting
much younger cohorts, and to have occurred later in time than the
epidemics in homosexual males; (3) peak cohorts in regions of high
frequency of AIDS associated with IVDU are younger than in those with
low frequency. A simple 3D plot comparing cohort trends among IVDUs is
as follows: TABULAR DATA, SEE ABSTRACT VOLUME. CONCLUSIONS: The cohort
patterns observed suggest that there is a rapidly evolving epidemic of
very young IVDUs in certain regions of Brazil. The fact that this is
occurring in such a young age group who are entering a peak period of
sexual activity makes for a dangerous situation which could allow for
efficient spread to the young heterosexual population.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION
Brazil/EPIDEMIOLOGY Cohort Studies Homosexuality/STATISTICS & NUMER
DATA Human Incidence Male Substance Abuse, Intravenous/COMPLICATIONS
MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).